Three Threats

[da]

According to an article in Der Spiegel, in early 2001, FEMA warned that a hurricane striking New Orleans was one of the three most likely serious threats to the U.S. The article lists one of the other two disasters as a terrorist attack on New York City.

Maddeningly, the article doesn't say what the third serious threat is. Wikipedia comes up with the somewhat obvious third choice, a large earthquake hitting San Francisco.

Looking for more information about these predictions, I came across this article which suggests that while Salon and other sources have been saying this disaster isn't as much a natural disaster as one caused by human error, the US Army Corps of Engineers also claims that even a completed levee project wasn't designed for the storm that actually occurred, rather only a category-three storm.

What can we learn from this? Should we vacate coastal cities? Spend a larger fraction of GDP on disaster prevention?

I'm in the middle of reading "Earth" by David Brin, suggested to me by dpolicar some time ago. It's got some spooky parallels to reality concerning disaster prediction, people disreguarding the predictions, and trying to head off various natural disasters with varying degrees of success. There are lots of philosophical questions about whether, as a species, we'd be better off just disappearing and letting the Earth try again (and indeed, whether She is trying to make that happen...)

Comments

[boutell.livejournal.com]

Enh. I'm not crazy about Earth. He relies on... well, I don't want to spoiler it for you, but I was disappointed in the ending.

[dpolicar]

yeah, the ending kinda sucks. but I found the book thought-provoking anyway.

[da-lj.livejournal.com]

I'm enjoying all of the Gaia bits. They seem the most believable parts of the story, actually- the Catholic Church adopting a more central mother-worship, the biologist not recognizing the religion she sort-of founded...

But the part with her grandson the particle physicist feels pretty darn contrived. Too bad he seems more of a main character than she does, at least as far as I've read.

I will try to keep further thoughts to myself until I finish, though. :)

[da-lj.livejournal.com]

I probably should finish reading a book before I write anything about it. I'm amused that just a few pages further after writing this post, I got to where the lead scientist decides the black hole is of extra-terrestrial origin. So the story's making a major veer away from the interesting Gaia bits, at least for a while.

I will keep reading, although for my money so far, "Earth" << "Forge of God" by Greg Bear, which has its own set of Deep Thoughts, but it's more tightly written.

[dr-tectonic.livejournal.com]

In a sense, ALL disasters are human-caused, because whether or not it's a disaster depends on how the affected human systems respond. A category 5 hurricane making landfall is just a weather event if nobody lives there.

Should we vacate coastal cities? No. But it would make a lot of sense for people everywhere to adjust their habitation patterns to their local environment a bit better then they have been.

Should we spend a larger fraction of GDP on disaster prevention? Absolutely. Waaay too much money got diverted from dealing with natural hazards (which we KNOW will continue to happen and cause significant damage) to dealing with terrorism (which is far more uncertain and, if you ask me, a lot less damaging).

There are lots of philosophical questions about whether, as a species, we'd be better off just disappearing and letting the Earth try again

WE would most certainly be much worse off, though OTHER species might benefit from such a move. =)

[da-lj.livejournal.com]

In a sense, ALL disasters are human-caused, because whether or not it's a disaster depends on how the affected human systems respond. A category 5 hurricane making landfall is just a weather event if nobody lives there.

In that sense, yes; though I'd argue that a major flood or forest-fire is still a disaster for the inhabitants, regardless of their species, as long as they've been distressed by the distruction... Not that it changes your argument, that humans should responded better to the weather/environment. We certainly should.

"There are lots of philosophical questions about whether, as a species, we'd be better off just disappearing and letting the Earth try again"

Yeah, I suppose I should've said that better- "whether the planet would be better off if we disappeared from it" was my intent. :) I won't argue for that, at least in this post, but in the least, I'm likely to argue that reducing population pressures by a lot would solve lots of problems.

I'm reading about the political after-effects from Katrina and crossing my fingers that it doesn't turn into partisan bickering, that changes do get made. I won't be too surprised, though, if the governent isn't willing to change much. If I worked for FEMA, I'd be really pissed, since it sounds like they were completely bowdlerized by being absorbed into Homeland Security...